Struggling to describe this. Flynn effect vs genetic selection. Tongue in cheek (Swift Modest Proposal) style interventions given this model are: This meant that theyd routinely turn them off. It stands to reason that f can be very intractable, and resolving that function is the difficult question where there is science to be done. (Although, arent gene-behavior connections in general pretty suspect, as per your previous post?) This has nothing to do with the OP, but I will definitely comment on your wrestling example, as a wrestler. Some of the genetic diseases of Eastern Eurpoean Jews are correlated with intelligence, IIRC, but I dont think they have mental effects. The tower model looks close to my personal model, which has absolutely no experimental testing besides how the two of us feel about itbut generally I call it the Smore model. Its not because simply being small or being large or having a flat face are inherently unhealthy traits; there are other species that are much smaller than Yorkies, much larger than Great Danes, and have flatter faces than Pugs, without suffering any problems as a result. Id guess the funny people can be funny even when their jokes bomb, because they can make their failed jokes into a joke at their own expense? Couldnt this all be the result of several essentailly different things being lumped together under the label autism spectrum? (Or did, 20+ years ago when I last took an IQ test.) I am simply saying that when you encounter lots of GS11+ people they are exactly like Comey. Has paternal/maternal age been eliminated as cofounding factor from parents IQ/autism correlation? * Have a sense of entitlement and require constant, excessive admiration (All three were C-section births.) i.e. My bosses at my last job (normal modulo their ethnic origin). I dont know. I work with with a lot of very smart people, and have throughout my career. Seems like it could apply if there were many genes of small but overlapping effect, so that one particular aspect of mental performance is sometimes pushed past the breaking point. He is the most Civil Servicy person around. I have a possible explanation for the observed distribution of intelligence in autistic people. Many people she knew, she said, felt duped by psychiatrists, for example, who they felt. Immune systems that greet pathogens with a really forceful response on a hair trigger. (*), Its not hard to measure my IQ, except that it generally falls at the top of the scale where the tests dont make effective distinctions. 10.0 is the optimal learning rate, and 9.5 is good, then 10.5 is typically also good. My original post talked about dual axes, functionality and intelligence, with non-functional high intelligence becoming, effectively, a distinct kind of low intelligence. Either way, I dont think you can have one without the other above a certain level. She has an article on her website here: https://hennyk.com/autism-and-perfect-pitch/ and a book: https://hennyk.com/book-perfect-pitch-in-the-key-of-autism/. Because a masculinizing influence on the brain would militate against the development of brain structures telling the autistic person you are actually a girl.. I have no family history of autism. Go up a level and you can mash a bunch of sequential notes on a piano with one left out of the middle and they can tell you the highest note, lowest note, and the one you left out. That figure seems very low to me, though it depends what exactly you define as incredibly smart and incredibly charismatic. If we take incredibly to be synonymous with top percentile, there would be 75 million people in the world who are incredibly intelligent. I view it as absolutely crucial that bright kids get to socialize with kids like them, and also that someone teaches them how to be a functional person. >The Gardner study seems to suggest its a very weakly elevated risk, maybe only 1.1x or 1.2x relative risk. My wife also has a university degree, her father was an engineer and his 3 siblings had careers in operations research, research scientist, school principal. About 13% of autistic children (in this sample from whatever social stratum they took their sample from) have fathers who are engineers, compared to only 5% of a group of (presumably well-matched?) Slate Star Codex (SSC) was a blog focused on science, medicine (especially within psychiatry ), philosophy, politics, and futurism. Every year, we get like 4 or 5 students who are just ready for hardcore abstract mathematics from the get go, and since a few years my university allows them to take masters level lectures as early as they want. paternal IQ/ autism seems pretty much decorrelated, which is strange given the 100% confidence that autism genes are IQ boosting. Ive looked into this topic myself, not professionally or anything-just as an interested lay researcher with a science/statistics background- and had a less well-articulated formulation of the tower vs. foundation model in mind for awhile, too. The fact that nobody has noticed and studied an effect in a subgroup is evidence that the subgroup does not have a large effect. All this leads me to believe that people who are gifted and whos weirdness is more obvious are often misdiagnosed as having Asperger autism. I guess in a context-specific sense, normal is being defined as not-autistic? Maybe one bias from my statement is Im young, and many of my smart friends are also young. The relatives of autistic people will usually have many of the genes for autism, but not be autistic themselves. Some might get lucky and be able to manage the negatives from such unusual prior models away by the effects of other quirks, say having abstract thoughts feel more natural through some particular tweaks making the net their active inference casts wider with higher error tolerance or by lowering the interconnectivity between different oversensitive mental modules that they dont interfere with one another as much or whatnot then you get high-functioning autistic individuals, maybe Newtons one cliched example of that sort of configuration. (So I dont understand why confidence goes down so much for point 5 in the conclusion of the original post, from 80 to 25 percent.). 2. Someone at the 90th percentile of weight back then weighed about 185 lbs; today, he would weigh 320 lbs. Do I say 1.2x that of someone under 30? Or do I say, Not enough data to answer, plausibly extremely high? (And maybe theres some kind of subtype of autism > size of correlation thing happening, too. One solution is to view your family rather than your schoolmates as your peer group. I dont know their actual IQs, but Im very confident a lot of people in my bubble are nice, funny, enjoyable, sports-watching people with 99% intelligence. Not just running an emulation of normal to deal with other people? FWIW, I know a few bona-fide genius-level people; on the order of Ph.D. Gifted children dont always have gifted families, though. Highly intelligent people are likely to have different interests, read and talk about different things, than average peopledoes that make them not normal? Judith Harris discusses this in one of her books. Also, IQ over 70 should be IQ under 70, and people have have autism should be people who have autism. Non-autistic geniuses are compatible with the proposed hyperparameter model, unless Im missing something. Currently offering travel medical insurance for nomads, and global health insurance for remote teams. (my son was a Caesarian delivery) but that was because his head (=brain?) You can squeeze out a little more gain by filtering just the frequencies that feed back, but if you keep going up it wont take long at all before there are too many to filter. We dont have an understanding of how autism exists in the general populace so our data is skewed towards the worst because of where that data comes from. [3] The dangling paren is disquieting enough to have prompted me to make an account: most of the other statistics mentioned here). Disguised in that almost is a very slight tendency for fathers to be unusually intelligent, plus a (statistically insignificant) tendency for them to be unusually unintelligent. Have children earlier, maybe? > (which are around 80% to 90%; the authors are embarrassed by this, and in a later study suggest they might just have been bad at determining who in their sample did or didnt have autism. At the individual level things are generally way more complex than these symptom-based diagnoses and the key is to ask *why* the kid isnt mixing well socially, gets into fights / lashes out, or cant sit still rather than reify it as a brain dysfunction. To some extent, incompatible advantages can stack by affecting entirely different things (one runner with salutary mutations affecting his legs, his lungs, and his adrenal gland) But to some extent they cant. I am not particularly confident in the theory either in its parts or in whole. Additionally, look at the lives of geniuses throughout American history. Then why is there a genetic link? If you mean extraverted, no small number. Substack is a blogging site that helps writers earn money and readers discover articles they'll like. That seems too low, based on my interactions with her: shes not so much slow as odd, so it may very well be that the test isnt a good measure. The suggested results for selection against IQ are just in recent industrial time. Their intelligence tends to be more imbalanced than neurotypicals, so IQ tests (which rely on an assumption that most forms of intelligence are correlated) are less applicable. I was a bit of an outlier in my family, and didnt really find a peer group I fitted in with until university. So far, this is still 70% wish-casting to 30% reality-aligned. For that matter, some amazing ingenuity went into ancient engineeringenough so that I think we still dont know exactly how the Incas built Machu Pichu or the Egyptians built the pyramids. focus on the denotations of words, not the emotional or social connotations. Id say so. The threshold is probably different for women and men. Because he was as skilled as me, and had real muscles. More, by that point your identity probably includes significant aspects which make the idea of becoming normal and predictable less personally palatable. Also, if we do get to a bold new future of hyper-intelligent unilaterism, would the hyper-intelligent even want to sign up for it? This intelligence is shifted towards technical subjects. There could be something similar going on with autism. I suspect that this is the case. Most of these seem to be related to social ability. Genes encode changes to these hyperparameters. Knowing how much of the genetic variance in intelligence (say IQ for an easy measure) is additive is probably good enough to figure out how off the purely linear assumption is. Why would you doubt it if you dont have the data? I dont think cystic fibrosis works that way. And also reproducing younger (banking frozen eggs and/or sperm early for the IVF). For example, they are not extremely aggressive, but tend to be gentle individuals. Low-functioning autism has all kinds of genetic linkages to all kinds of different genetic syndromes that cause brain damage, damage that often extends beyond autistic symptoms. This study finds lower heritability than the usual estimates (which are around 80% to 90%; the authors are embarrassed by this, and in a later study suggest they might just have been bad at determining who in their sample did or didnt have autism. MealSquares is a "nutritionally complete" food that contains a balanced diet worth of nutrients in a few tasty easily measurable units. Plus the military is always interested in easy ways to enforce security and they arent too bothered by political correctness, so any automated defense units that I might hypothetically build could also be a profitable side-business for me. For example, they may dislike the father for not doing enough when the kid is self-harming from overstimulation. Think Soylent, except zero preparation, made with natural ingredients, and looks/tastes a lot like an ordinary scone. In a few cases, the parent gets the de novo mutation, but for whatever reason doesnt develop autism, and then passes it onto their child, who does develop autism. What do you guys think of the recent research linking autism to gut bacteria? The difference between high and low functioning autistic children is significant. I suspect a lot of people who answered the survey were giving scores from IQ tests they took as children, or from internet tests of dubious quality. Suppose the only study on age-related mortality shows that people older than 30 are 1.2x more likely to die in a given year than people younger than 30, but does not give any other information. my kid who is on the spectrum is 12 and ok functioning (doing well in middle school) i cant imagine what would get us into the therapist office to do an IQ test. An analogy: Imagine you have a sound system with a microphone, speakers, and a mixing board. This pattern is not uncommon (my son followed this trajectory), and is partly responsible for the even less uncommon belief that vaccines cause autism, because the regression coincides with vaccination. For example, why do people with down syndrome or williams syndrome have differently shaped faces? Well, there is a point, but it takes a long time to grasp it, at which point you are significantly behind people who went along with them without questioning them. Similarly, you would expect lower rates of male-to-female transgender identity among the population of people on the autism spectrum who came equipped with that Y chromosome. Most are weird in the sense of having uncommon interests (reading history or science books or studying languages for fun, say), but most seem pretty normal in terms of personality and affect and such. For example: As the learning rate increases, a network becomes able to learn new information more quickly. There is then a threshold effect with enough perceptual ability and intelligence, the developing brain finds ways to route around the broken normal processes to get stuff done. People running an emulation of normal are usually not staggeringly intelligent. Thats assuming that we do have a missing group of geniusesIm not sure how we track these things, or who you are counting as a genius. I recognised my son was different at about 15 months old. Im skeptical of the extreme male brain hypothesis for autism. With that said, Im not an expert and there is a vast literature rummaging around for genetic correlates to autism, so Im mostly going by the linked paper above. High IQ, excellent at math, maybe a little socially awkward but not too bad (we live in a reasonably large town, so there are lots of like-minded kids he can socialize with.) control children (though see the discussion here) for some debate over how seriously to take this; I am less sure this is accurate than most of the other statistics mentioned here. Its possible some degree of politics was involved in this decision: The World Health Organization also is eliminating Asperger syndrome from its International Classification of Diseases. Thats exactly what we observe here. If e.g. Several studies have shown a genetic link between autism and intelligence; genes that contribute to autism risk also contribute to high IQ. Or it means that subgroup is relatively small and thus has not been studied yet. Autism (especially Asperger's) is basically a vanity diagnosis these days. In other words, if your perceptual intelligence is much higher than your other types of intelligence, you will end up autistic. My wife is autistic. Research suggests that there is an ongoing reversed Flynn effect, i.e. So the genes are a correlation but not a cause of the autism, which is due to factors incidentally related to the high IQ, for example the advanced age of the parents? Theres a range for this parameter, selection in the past has left most of the population too low, but if you push the parameter up too high things will break. and b) people diagnosed with autism using current criteria are quite prevalent in the community and presumably functioning in their communities. Its also a chapter of The 10,000 Year Explosion. This is not the whole story, and even cases of autism that are caused entirely or mostly by normal genetics are associated with unusually low IQ (80% confidence), 5. However, if too many such genes coincide in the same individual, then A exceeds its optimum of 10. All this is a purely hypothetical thought-experiment, of course. Let me write toy model, where intelligence Q is a function f of all heritable biological parameters that could possibly affect brain function (let us say, all possible variants of human genes in a DNA sequence of certain base pair length), denoted by g_1, , g_n. Just install an extension and when you buy something, people in poverty will get medicines, bed nets, or financial aid. Its not like theyll answer anybody. If that didnt work because the moralizing pearl-clutching normies insisted on creating arbitrary obstacles in my path to financial success, I would definitely see cuddling up to Putin as a good alternative. with stimulant use (arguably, it also explains a number of non-clinical nerdy traits rather nicely). Seriously, what sort of advice do you expect? But that wouldnt be the way to bet, IMO. This can coexist with a loss in the number of people with the highest potential intelligenceif were building sewers and safe water supplies at the same time were convincing our smartest 5% of people to take a vow of celibacy, well get that pattern. The reason seems to be that there is great overlap in symptoms, although there is great diversity in symptoms. b. Thats sounds like a significant amount of epistasis in IQ, so I agree its not that weird that a few people end up very different than youd expect from a purely additive genetics + additive environment model. I would hypothesize based on this that autistic people usually have parents who are very good at exactly those areas that they have trouble in.