If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. 1461] -- The 2020 Economic Collapse Remains Far from full Recovery. Shadow Government Statistics - RationalWiki That said, the aggregate series quarterly sales, have been in annual decline for each of the last seven quarters, up through the current 1q2023, in an otherwise deepening housing recession. Williams told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, that the true headline . Commentary No. Any solid developments in the ever-deepening U.S. Government Fiscal Crisis will be covered here in the SYSTEMIC RISK Section. U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates 1451, No. SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph). Separately, the Russia-Ukraine War continues to supply near-term uncertainty for and volatility to the domestic and global financial and commodity markets, amidst intensifying global political instabilities, all exacerbating systemic risks for related economic and financial market disruptions and crises. For those looking to subscribe, please go to the SUBSCRIPTION LINK at the upper left-hand corner of this Web page). Government will not lift welfare payments despite recommendation - as Money Supply Charts - Shadowstats.com Trailblazer builds: Strengthen your main character up. Shadowstats debunked | Econbrowser 1461. Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. (8) April 18th, (Census Bureau). March 2023 Housing Starts dropped year-to-year by a meaningful 17.2% (-17.2%) +/- 9.1%, with a 90% confidence interval, versus a revised 19.4% (-19.4%) [previously 18.4% (-18.4%)] in February. Commentaries by Date - Shadowstats.com Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.]. Dan Heng builds: Sharpen that spear. Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Coming Inflation and Market Turmoil, Deepening Economic Woes and Soaring Inflation Ahead Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses Liquidity-Strapped Consumers Move to Cash, Spiking Traditional Money Supply M1 That circumstance is reviewed in pending ShadowStats Benchmark Commentary No. (16) April 3rd (Census Bureau) February 2023 Real Construction Spending) - Despite the usual upside revisions to the prior two months of reporting, February 2023 Real Construction Spending showed its 17th straight month of year-to-year decline (down by 9.5% (-9.5%) from February 2022) [see Note (4)], with First-Quarter 2023 activity track for its fourth consecutive quarter-to-quarter decline, and its sixth consecutive quarterly year-to-year decline. Economic Issues No. 30 -- Hiding in the Shadows : The Growth of the To ensure that our results are as robust as possible we use multiple sources to estimate its overall size, including data from the ABS, the Black Economy Taskforce (BETF), and the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC). Near-Term Financial-Market Turmoil Likely Is Far from Over, Given Renewed Deterioration in Economic Conditions, Fourth-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Growth of 4.0% Was as Expected, Slowing from the Record 33.4% Third-Quarter Pandemic Rebound All previous Commentaries are available in, or accessible from, the upper left-hand column of this www.shadowstats.com Home Page. (11) April 14th (CassInfo.com) The March 2023 Cass Freight Index release noted that The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 1.0% m/m in March as freight markets continue to work through an extended soft patch. That monthly decline of 1.0% (-1.0%) was not seasonally adjusted, with a related unadjusted year-to-year drop of 4.0% (-4.0%). Negative Implications Here for the July 29th GDP Benchmarking The 2020 Pandemic-Driven Recession was timed by the defining National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), from Peak-to-Trough, as from February 2020 to April 2020 [2 months, the shortest on record] and from Fourth-Quarter 2019 to Second-Quarter 2020 [2 quarters]. Search Text. At the same time, the Pandemic-distorted and disrupted year-to-year gain for February 2023 Basic M1 eased to 4.8% from and unrevised 6.2% in February 2023. The Shadow TUAS can carry payloads up to 27kg (60lb) including sensors and electronic warfare systems. SHADOWSTATS DAILY UPDATE - May 1st to May 3rd A major Subscriber-Only e-mail update is pending for later today. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). Data source: Quarterly Informal Economy Survey (QIES) by World Economics, London. 1461. There Is No V-Shaped Recovery Headline March 2023 Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation dropped sharply from 4.9% in February 2023 to 2.8% in March 2023, due to the relative easing against the extreme oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago Russian invasion of Ukraine. ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. (6) April 24th (Census Bureau). Informal / Shadow Economy Size | By Country | 2023 | Data - World Economics Public Comment on Inflation Measurement & the Chained CPI-U, Update 2016Update 2015Hyperinflation 20142014 Second InstallmentDeficit Reality. (10) April 14th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, St. Louis Fed, ShadowStats) [See the Opening Comments on the April 24th annual benchmark revisions to Retail Sales, which continue to show flat to negative annual contractions and quarterly contractions, net of inflation.] Shadowstats.com is a website that claims that the government does a piss poor job of keeping track of certain statistics. Money Supply and Monetary Base detail follows in the later FEDERAL RESERVE Section and its SYSTEMIC RISK -- MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE coverage (just keep scrolling down), along with expanded material in conjunction with the updated Money Supply numbers and graph posted on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab of www.shadowstats.com (see the link above). ShadowStats.com (@shadowstats) / Twitter -- A little closer to real-world numbers, initial year-to-year headline March 2023 PPI Construction Inflation eased to 15.6%, from a minimally revised 16.1% (previously 16.2%) in February 2023. The U.S. Dollar Is at Its Lowest Level Against the Swiss Franc Since January 2015, Down by 10.0% (-10.0%) Year-to-Year A Weak Dollar Is Highly Inflationary for the United States and Bullish for Gold Further background on the SGS-Alternate CPI series is available in our Public Comment on Inflation Measurement. The annual drop of 22.0% (-22.0%) in March was against a 23.1% (-23.1%) annual decline in February, and was the eighth straight month of annual contraction deeper than minus 20% (go to https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales for details). Inflation is already in the double digits, according to ShadowStats' John Williams, and will still grow. The aggregate Monetary Base often moves broadly on a parallel basis with the Money Supply, but it also can vary widely with the Money Supply, tied to the dominance of its movements triggered by Bank Reserves held by Federal Reserve Banks. As Tim notes, this is a gobsmacking error. Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. ShadowStats postings of the June 2021 Commentary and before - back to 2004 - are open to all, accessible by clicking on Archives, at the bottom of the left-hand column of this ShadowStats homepage. the Plunge Protection Team), or as otherwise being gamed by the Federal Reserve. While shifting focus to the troubled banking system, FOMC hopes and activities still are concentrated on some way of triggering a Recession, again, ostensibly to help contain inflation otherwise being driven by a non-existent overheating economy, where the mounting inflation pressures primarily are due otherwise, to continuing, extreme levels of Money Supply creation. That said, again, Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022 (FY 2021, FY 2022, FY 2023) circumstances and prospects have continued to deteriorate meaningfully, at an accelerating pace, from conditions at the end of FY 2020 (see the next paragraph), exploding anew into the still unfolding, disastrous FY 2023. January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions Measured against its Pre-Pandemic level, 4q2022 Real GDP had gained 5.03% [previously 5.06% and 5.11%]. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms of year-to-year percent change in the price index. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. Sales declined 22% from one year ago. The renewed monthly decline followed a 13.8% monthly jump in March, the first monthly gain since January 2022. 1461 soon. A similar pattern is likely with the Census Bureaus May 1st release of March 2023 nominal Construction Spending, given the activity patterns and related needed inflation-adjustments already in play. B U S I N E S S .. C Y C L E -- RECESSION-DEPRESSION TIMING Updated September 21, 2021 [Full review and update pending in No. Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation That Is Because the Current Collapse Is Pandemic, Not Business-Cycle Driven; Surging Money Growth in a Non-Business-Cycle Collapse Can Trigger Hyperinflation THIS WEEKS PENDING DAILY UPDATE COVERAGE OF FOMC AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Monday, May 1st to Friday, May 5th): (Monday) March 2023 Construction Spending will be covered Tuesday, (Late Wednesday and Thursday) May 2023 FOMC Meeting, (Thursday) March 2023 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, (Friday) April 2023 Employment and Unemployment. (February 3rd 2023/April 5th 2022) U.S. GOVERNMENT DETERIORATING FISCAL CONDITIONS/ INTENSIFYING FISCAL CRISIS [In context of the United States once again at the brink of breaking its Debt Ceiling and risking default ] Grievously malfeasant U.S. Government fiscal policies continue to contribute meaningfully to the rapidly accelerating pace of U.S. Inflation. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. March 2023 Money Supply activity reflected a continuing and intensifying 55-year record-high flight to liquidity in Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits), with Basic M1 notching higher to 35.0% of the aggregate headline Money Supply M2, its highest proportion since the same level in April 1970, a 53-year high. Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. In parallel, the year-to-year pace of March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate CPI inflation eased to 12.9% in March 2023, from 14.1%, from in February 2023. Best Wishes -- John Williams. 1461. That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. IMPORTANT: Commentary postings are advised directly to Subscribers by coincident e-mail, along with a direct link to the posted Commentary and any needed login detail. -- Headline March 2023 U.3 and U.6 Unemployment of 3.50% and 6.68% notched lower from respective three- and six-month highs of 3.57% and 6.80% in February, but held above January 2023 levels. A Review-Preview of 2020 into 2024, it will incorporate all the latest economic details. That said, the aggregate series quarterly sales, have been in annual decline for each of the last seven quarters, up through the current 1q2023, in an otherwise deepening housing recession. The aggregate Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit for 2022 was unrevised at -1,320.2 Billion Chained (2012) Dollars, again, its worst showing in history. [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. "John" Williams was born in 1949. ShadowStats publishes "alternate" measures of inflation and pretends to do so by employing the methods the statistics bureau used to employ, that is, by ignoring the fact that we consume . Surging Monetary Base, Reserves and Currency Indicate Intensifying Systemic Problems Severe, U.S. Dollar-Debasing Inflationary Pressures from Existing, Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies Are About to Get Much Worse The growth of the shadow economy can set off a destructive cycle. TRA's research provides businesses with an understanding of the current operating market which is important in making future decisions. For example, they . During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. 1461. Explored in the pending Commentary, the U.S. economy is and has been much weaker than advertised, not overheating, and the soaring inflation, which is much worse than headlined, again, primarily is being driven by the Feds excessive Money and Liquidity creation, not by an overheating economy, in a policy conundrum previously noted here by ShadowStats. That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. 1461 will review the underlying GDP, GDI and GNP numbers. Jacinta Price named shadow minister for Indigenous Australians . Headline 1q2023 GDP annualized Real GDP growth of 1.06% slowed from an unrevised 2.57% in 4q2022, while annualized quarterly inflation picked from 3.92% to 4.01%. December 2020 Real Retail Sales Declined for the Third Straight Month, and Fourth-Quarter 2020 Activity Relapsed into Quarterly Contraction In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. March 2023 New Residential Construction continued in statistically significant annual year-to-year collapse for both Building Permits and Housing Starts. Minimizing Reporting of Such, the Fed Just Redefined Money Supply M1; Given Newly Defined M1-Like Liquidity Characteristics for M2 Savings Deposits, Savings Have Been Shifted Retroactively from M2 to into M1, Effective as of May 2020 March 2023 New Home Sales gained by a headline, statistically insignificant 9.6% +/- 15.2% month-to-month, with a statistically insignificant year-to-year decline of 3.4% (-3.4%) +/- 12.7% for this near-term unstable series. Services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, presentations and consultations in-house for clients. Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies Separately, extended full coverage and graphs of both the Money Supply and Monetary Base and their components follows in the pending Subscriber-only Daily Update E-mail. Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking), Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, This material is provided under the ShadowStats.com. Shadow previously offered three subscription plans: Shadow Boost ($14.99 per month, or $11.99 per month with an annual subscription) with a basic gaming PC setup, Shadow Ultra ($29.99 per. Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. Consumer Inflation: Official vs ShadowStats | Chart of the Week. Use the drop-down menu below to find highlights and links to Commentaries from the present and past months. Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. The revisions did not change quarterly patterns meaningfully, but did show that broader headline activity generally had been some somewhat slower than previously estimated in the last two years [graphs were plotted in the Subscriber-only e-mail of April 14th]. Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart. -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. Headline March 2023 CPI-U annual inflation eased to 5.0%, from 6.0% in February, again, due to the relative easing of March 2023 energy prices against the oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago by Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Money Supply. Primers & Reports. U.S. Dollar. In the Latest Four Months, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Has Leveled Off Around 12%, Worst Since Before World War II, Other than for the Pandemic The headline March 2023 Monetary Base, jumped by 4.7% month-to-month to a seven-month high, as the FOMC fed emergency funding into Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks, at a time of systemic liquidity concerns. Annual-Change Gyrations Are Just Beginning for Economic, Inflation, Money Supply and Financial Return Numbers, as the Pandemic-Driven Collapse Passes It First Anniversary (16) April 3rd (Census Bureau) February 2023 Real Construction Spending) - Despite the usual upside revisions to the prior two months of reporting, February 2023 Real Construction Spending showed its 17th straight month of year-to-year decline (down by 9.5% (-9.5%) from February 2022) [see Note (4)], with First-Quarter 2023 activity track for its fourth consecutive quarter-to-quarter decline, and its sixth consecutive quarterly year-to-year decline. Here is how the March 2023 Money Supply numbers shaped up. The extent of these effects is uncertain. 1461. Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. A new analysis will follow with preliminary April 2023 numbers late this coming week. Policies and programs that are framed on the basis of unreliable statistics may be inappropriate and self-defeating. Details and related graphs follow in the next Subscriber e-mail, with extended review and coverage of this Fed-acknowledged regular pattern of initial upside reporting and later downside benchmark revisions to this series, as otherwise pending in Commentary No. Year-to-Year Gain in Monthly November M1 Jumped to a Record 53.2% from the Prior Record of 42.3% in October, Surged to 65.6% in Week-Ended November 30th Including Long-Term Discouraged Workers, the broader, March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate of 24.6% held at a seven-month high. Given a moribund, underlying U.S. Economy, raising rates further [as had been heavily jawboned and promised by the Fed Chairman, among other FOMC members, until the most-recent March 2023 FOMC] likely will only exacerbate deteriorating economic conditions, without providing any meaningful inflation relief. Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. Please click on a chart or link to view details. ShadowStats and the 'Alternate Inflation' Myth - US News [Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .] Recessions are measured only from Peak-to-Trough, while Recoveries are measured from Trough-to-Regaining-the-Pre-Recession-Peak (timing not formally called by the NBER), which is far from being at hand, despite relative strength in some major numbers such as the GDP. Ongoing rate hikes at each of the last several FOMC Meetings to reduce inflation, remain counterproductive in the context of an already deepening Economic Recession and resurgent gasoline prices. When the Pandemic hit the U.S. economy and financial system hard in March and April 2020, the Federal Reserve responded with massive expansion of the Money Supply (eventually the equivalent of 23-years-worth of regular Basic M1 stimulus -- Systemic Liquidity). Background definitions and related detailed discussion, historical data and graphs for each of the Money Supply Series were covered in Benchmark Commentary No. In the charts to the right we show two SGS-Alternate CPI estimates: One based on the pre-1990 official methodology for computing the CPI-U, and the other based on the methodology which was employed prior to 1980. That said, expanded Federal Government Deficit Spending continues, currently at the Debt Ceiling. -- Headline Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP inflation (Implicit Price Deflator [IPD}) came in at a revised third estimate of an annualized pace of 3.92% (previously 3.93% and 3.51%), against an unrevised 4.36% in 3q2022, and up by an unrevised year-to-year 6.41% (initially 6.30%), versus an unrevised 7.15% in Third-Quarter 2022, which remained at a 42-year high, outside of the recent inflation spike. -- Extended Fed coverage will follows in the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE, with an updated story following the pending May 3rd FOMC coverage, as well as a comprehensive review of Federal Reserve Monetary Policies and Federal Government Fiscal Policies in pending Commentary No. Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking) Underlying Fundamentals Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, January 2021 Manufacturing Declined Year-to-Year for the 19th Consecutive Month, Still in the Downturn Induced by the FOMC 15 Months Before the Pandemic Collapse (II) - REGULAR ALERTS Again, as noted after the February 2023 rate hike, despite Fed Chairman Jerome Powells continued downplaying risks for the FOMCs hoped-for imminent Recession, which otherwise ostensibly is why he was raising rates, that downturn already was and is in play. March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. Accordingly, the FOMCs near-term financial-market policy conundrum of creating Money Supply to support the financial system, while trying to kill inflation at the same time, has no happy resolution. The projected continuous rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that current policy is unsustainable. Allowing for the 2021 Unfunded Liabilities, reflected here, that Debt-to-GDP ratio already was 552% at the end of Fiscal Year 2021. I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here). Pandemic-Disrupted U.3 Unemployment Effectively Was 9.0% in November 2020, Not the Headlined 6.7% In general terms, methodological shifts in government reporting have depressed reported inflation, moving the concept of the CPI away from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living. Separately, all as measured against Pre-Pandemic Troughs, traditional M2, which has not been redefined, was up by 34.7% in March 2023, versus readings 36.4% in February 2023 and 37.3% in January, while the broadest ShadowStats Ongoing-M3 Estimate notched lower in March to 30.2%, from 31.9% in both February and January 2023. FOMC action looms this week, amidst signs of a tanking Economy and a serious Inflation problem. In context of the ever evolving financial, inflation and economic circumstances, ShadowStats should post Commentary No. If you are a Subscriber and are not receiving, but would like to receive those e-mails, please send a note to johnwilliams@shadowstats.com along with the desired e-mail address. Where Commercial Aircraft account for about 32% of total orders, the remaining 68% includes everything else, ranging from automobiles to computers. (II) - REGULAR ALERTS Again, as noted after the February 2023 rate hike, despite Fed Chairman Jerome Powells continued downplaying risks for the FOMCs hoped-for imminent Recession, which otherwise ostensibly is why he was raising rates, that downturn already was and is in play. Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. November Unemployment and Payrolls Confirmed Stalled, L-Shaped, Non-Recovering Economic Activity
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