"We think the tumultuous and costly MSFT/ATVI experience, culminating with a critical UK rejection, could dissuade potential suitors from attempting big, multi-billion dollar deals, perhaps turning towards more bite-sized, sub-$1 billion deals, thereby reducing the takeout premium built into EA shares," BMO analyst Gerrick Johnson said. Bullish market sentimentthe percentage of respondents that say the market will trend up over the next six monthshas averaged 38.0% over the life of the survey. Jefferies downgraded the electric vehicle maker, Meta beat Wall Street estimates on both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, surpassed Wall Street's expectations on the top and bottom lines. The benchmark index gave up as much as 2% through Wednesday, With the pullback over the last few trading days, I expect even more pessimism in the next report. The Commerce Department released its broad-ranging Personal While any survey has its imperfections, I like the fact that this survey has been around for so long in a fairly consistent format. We want to hear from you. spread is at an "unusually low level for the seventh week out of Gains were led by Microsoft MSFT, Apple AAPL and Exxon Mobil XOM. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 24.1%. Learn More, 2023 American Association of Individual Investors. In contrast, a bearish indicator means that investors expect a stock or market to trend downwards. The AAII indicators are making waves this week so I will cover two charts. The current conditions index was revised downward slightly, offsetting a slight gain in the expectations component. Bearish sentiment that's "now approaching an unusually high level again," according to the AAII, is a good sign for contrarian investors. Composite. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 6.5 percentage points to -14.4%. US Investor Sentiment, % Bearish (I:USISB) . This is the first time in the survey's history, pessimism is above 60 . An IXIC thrust above this year's high at 12,270, as well as the upper daily BB, now around 12,285, will have potential to spark upside momentum. Want to stay up to date with Arthur'slatest market insights? Chart Technical Indicators documentation | ChartMill.com AAII does a weekly survey and publishes weekly bullish, bearish and neutral investor sentiment. She also bought 27,481Tesla shares forArk Next Generation Internet ETFWednesday. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. The Nasdaq Composite led the way with a 2.5% gain. Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit, Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower, Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower. The airline's revenue of $5.71 billion also fell short of analysts' estimates of $5.73 billion. It's interesting to me that the sentiment in March 2003 was more bearish than in the third quarter of 2002, which was the actual bottom of that cyclical bear market phase from 2000-2002. On Thursday, the Composite's daily Bollinger Band (BB) width Monday, May 1, gold and silver, PCE Price Index reveals latest data suggests inflation slowing but elevated, The Metals, Money, and Markets Weekly April 28, 2023: Sittin' on a fence, Gold and silver: what you are really paying. First Republic and its advisors are trying convince other banks to buy some of its assets at above market rates to allow First Republic to reshape its balance sheet, CNBC reported Wednesday. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Stays Above 60% But that's nothing compared to the essentially bombed-out sentiment readings I saw this week. topped Wall Street expectations for the first quarter. The three major indexes opened higher on Thursday. The current chart looks like this: The green bars represent the percent of respondents who were bullish, while the red bars show the percent of bearish respondents. One reason this report stuck out to me was the fact that the SPX was so close to an all-time high. Neutral market sentimentthe percentage that sees no change in market directionhas averaged 31.5%. Conversely, taking out the lower daily BB, which ended Thursday at 11,855, as well as Tuesday's low at 11,798, and the 50-day moving average, which closed Thursday at 11,788, will have the potential to trigger a sharp downside spill. Southwest Airlines' stock shed 5.6% after it reported a $159 million loss in the first quarter as the effects of its December 2022 meltdown carried over into the first quarter. Individual investors are so bearish it's a contrarian buy - CNBC Meta posted $28.65 billion in revenue, topping analysts' $27.66 billion estimate, according to Refinitiv data. The stock rose 71 cents, or about 12%, but is still trading below $7 per share. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. Revenue increased 17% from the same quarter a year ago. "I dont think we escape another 25 basis point rate hike at improvement to 46.8. France's CAC 40 was 0.3% higher at 10:15 a.m. Paris time, while Germany's DAX was flat and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 was 0.05% lower. This week's AAII Sentiment Survey results: Bullish: 32.8%, down 4.9 percentage points Neutral: 33.9%, up 2.1 percentage points Bearish: 33.3%, up 2.8 percentage points Historical averages:. Neutral sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, edged down by 0.3 percentage points to 37.4%. Trading and investing in financial markets involves risk. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is a non-profit organization focused on providing education and services to investors for assistance with investing decisions. These results are usually available at StockCharts on Thursday or Friday. Although bearish sentiment was recently reverting closer to its historical average, it is now approaching an "unusually high" level again. "Developing more open source models (including LLMs) and helping create an open ecosystem is another area of focus as an open ecosystem should enable META to stay at the forefront and drive infrastructure efficiency over time," Morgan Stanley's Brian Nowak wrote on Thursday. at a much shallower pace this month than economists projected. Hershey's stock hit an all-time high on Thursday. What Helps and Doesn't Help Find Top-Performing Stocks, O'Shaughnessy: Growth Market Leaders Screen, AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Remains Above Average for 10th Consecutive Week, AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Stays Above Average for Ninth Consecutive Week, AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Stays Above Average for Eighth Consecutive Week, Using the AAII Sentiment Survey as a Contrarian Indicator, Analyzing the AAII Sentiment Survey Without Hindsight. *, Dollar, gold edge up; crude rises ~2%; bitcoin off ~1% In last week's survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) the bullish % dropped sharply to 24.9% from 32.8% the prior week. The company reported 92 cents in adjusted earnings per share, 10 cents higher than expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. Is Bearish Sentiment High Enough? - Forbes The AAII sentiment survey is a simple survey of its members, asking where they see the market going in the next six months. Post-earnings rallies from Meta and Comcast have pushed the communication services sector of the S&P 500 far above the rest of the index. CFO Steve Voskuil said on the earnings call that consumer demand is holding up better than previously expected, according to a transcript from FactSet. of the past 75 weeks. McDonald's and JPMorgan were the two best performers, with each gaining around 1.3%. Stock market today: Live updates - CNBC programs of education, publications, build their investment wealth through In other words, the story remains in which sentiment has been unshakably bearish. As we noted throughout 2022 and earlier this year, bears have consistently outnumbered bulls. We stand behind the fact that sticking to a long-term plan based on sound fundamentals and data-driven techniques or strategies is the best way to become an effective individual investor. As part of. their next meeting," Cardillo adds. I ran the numbers, however, and found my intuition was wrong. KLA Corporation was among the notable names boosting the Nasdaq Composite during midday trading. But a review of the AAII survey data over the last 25 years shows that this has indeed occurred but only some of the time. Roku The TV streaming platform rose 2% after mixed first-quarter earnings. *****, U.S. STOCKS HIGHER, SHAKE OFF AMAZON DECLINE (1040 This is mainly because the survey data I review is usually updated on Wednesday and Thursday of each week, so it's a perfect time to reflect on survey data (how investors are voting with their voice) versus price performance (how investors are voting with their capital). Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 18.6% The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Ebay's estimated current-quarter revenue of $2.47 billion to $2.54 billion topped analysts' consensus projection of $2.43 billion. Tesla is ARKK's biggest holding with a 9.66% weighting. It is human nature to take investor sentiment into account when making investment decisions, even if it's not always accurate or data-driven. Its results are circulated by various organizations and media outlets, including Barron's and Bloomberg. AAII reported that bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 3.4 percentage points to 38.5%. A month after the bulls minus bears line falls below -10%, the SPX averaged a gain of 1.11%, with a median return of 1.84%. The bottom panel shows the spread between the two, bullish minus bearish, and the neutral responses are not included here. beat analyst expectations in the first quarter. an Account, Activate The AAII Sentiment Survey provides investors a way to avoid hindsight bias. flat for the week, shorter-term volatility has certainly picked On Monday, analysts also expect the Institute for Supply Management's nationwide PMI number to show a shallower monthly contraction in March, with consensus calling for a half-point improvement to 46.8. Latest Stats AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: Bearish 2023-04-20 35.13 % 34.48 % Sign up for our weekly ChartWatchersNewsletter. Merck shares advanced 1.5% in the premarket after the health name beat analyst expectations in the first quarter. A number of sentiment indicators have flashed somewhat bearish readings in recent months as the major indexes have pulled back in the 10-20% range. The green bars represent the percent of respondents who were bullish, while the red bars show the percent of bearish respondents. Shares of Teladoc Health soared more than 7% in premarket after the telemedicine company reported a revenue beat for the latest quarter. You can share your thoughts with us at. approaching an "unusually high" level again. The recent reading fell back below the -10% line, meaning there were at least 10% more bears than bulls. Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to There is no options strategy like this one, which consistently minimizes risk while maintaining maximum profits. U.K. regulators blocked the deal on Wednesday, citing concerns over competition in the industry. stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 3.4 Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors. But while one-year inflation expectations held firm at 4.6% 66 0 obj <> endobj Here are their responses: This week's AAII Sentiment Survey results: The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987. Signs of excessive bullishness (> 15%), however, seem to be more bullish than bearish. "The market was waiting with bated breath for Big Tech," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. he added. The oil company giant posted. This page lists all chart indicators with a basic description and links to more detailed information when available. No opinion/Not sure: 20.6% Additionally, AAII asked its members if they think investors are too bullish or too bearish right now. to 24.1%. Stocks finished Thursday higher as strong results from Meta Platforms boosted tech-related names. Rest assured your losses are effectively limited to your initial cost at the time of making your move! suggesting it is especially ripe for even greater swings, or SPX remains trapped in a range, and just shy of some major AAII Percent Bears Surges, but Excessive Sentiment is not a Two-Way the upper daily BB, now around 12,285, will have potential to is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 70th time out Major U.S. indexes rise; transports, banks outperform pi\5hWv9x|SN'UW2bZL9\6Dx^jsY7w:ZFb:&-M&H8v@b`X=eYMmVb}/}pAUb8m6}-Z9f^Y_f=k]?LH+ ~cx_2'mA` @#J9%)HbrCZ'`0o#:|{{'BYhVfh9-` q3,}nQ&&$AyHm>yp8j{G#l%. It is considered a risky strategy, especially for beginners. The thinking goes that the more bearish investors say they are, the closer they are to having finished their sales of stock, and the higher their cash holdings, giving them firepower to put into stocks. The company also raised the low end of its revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. The American Association of Individual Investors is an independent, nonprofit corporation formed for the purpose of assisting individuals in becoming effective managers of their own assets through programs of education, information and research. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 70th time out of the past 75 weeks. KLA climbed more than 5% after the semiconductor equipment maker's latest fiscal third quarter results beat estimates on the top and bottom lines, according to consensus estimates from FactSet. <<. As of whole, the S&P 500 has gained around 0.8%. contraction in March, with consensus calling for a half-point That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Stats 0 In order to use StockCharts.com successfully, you must enable JavaScript in your browser.Click Here to learn how to enable JavaScript. In January, Mobileye said to expect revenue between $2.192 billion and $2.282 billion. He is also the author of "Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the Risk-Reward Ratio" (W&A Publishing/Trader's Press). A bullish indicator means there's a general investor sentiment that a stock or market will trend upward based on signals, patterns or the overall tone of the market. Analysts had expected earnings per share of $3.78 on revenue of $15.255 billion, according to the consensus figures from Refinitiv. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought the dip again inTeslashares Wednesday as her EV darling's volatile ride continued. for the tenth-straight week in the latest American Association In these instances, the AAII members predicted correctly. When reviewing the data of the AAII Sentiment Survey, a variety of indicators and criteria should also be considered before making a tactical change in asset allocation based on the results. Meanwhile, a Reuters analysis showed the term "AI" has been Next, employment costs - one of the main drivers of inflation and a top concern of the Fed - heated up more than analysts expected in the first three months of the year. The current conditions index was revised downward slightly, Stripping away volatile food and energy prices, the core equities overcome a drop of nearly 4% in heavyweight Amazon.com . inflation expectations gained 10 basis points to 3%. in which the bull-bear spread was negative. surprisingly strong IXIC range breakout. Transaction Status, Reset was up 0.9% at the same time. Not very contrarian. The SPX averaged a loss out to a month after these occurrences, with right around half of returns positive. The market quickly recovered and went on to new multi-year highs soon after. The returns six months after a signal are similar to the anytime returns. AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Falls To 18-Month Low The charts focus on the S&P 500 (US . The AAII Sentiment Survey should be used in conjunction with other resources and tools such as historical data, screens, power rankings and gradesall offered with our A+ Investor subscription. Mobileye Global, a software company that works on assisted and autonomous driving, slashed its outlook for the year on Thursday morning, citing a slowdown in China. NAAIM stands for the National Association of Active Investment Managers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average member earned an adjusted $4.91 a share last quarter on revenue of $15.862 billion. 30 Apr 2023 19:17:32 S&P 500 ChartStorm: Bearish Sentiment; Gloomy Earnings Outlook; New The oil company giant posted better-than-expected earnings . US Investor Sentiment, % Bearish - YCharts You are responsible for your own investmentdecisions. Founded by Paul Hickey and Justin Walters, formerly of Birinyi Associates and creators of the acclaimed TickerSense blog, Bespoke offers multiple products that allow anyone, from institutions to the most modest investor, to gain the data and knowledge necessary to make intelligent and profitable investment decisions. the last 10 weeks": AAII noted that market volatility continues to worry Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. finance blog, Bespoke provides timely investment ideas through its Bespoke Premium (http://bespokepremium.com/) subscription service and also manages money (http://bespokepremium.com/mm) for high net worth individuals. This is higher than the long term average of 31.07%. Check out the companies making headlines before the bell: The U.S. economy expanded by 1.1% in the first quarter, a much-slower-than-expected pace, the Commerce Department said. Some cryptocurrency sentiment indexes also consider volatility and volume, as well as activity in the general media and on online forums. Semiconductor stocks are generally sitting out the market rally on Thursday, and some cautious commentary about the auto market could be the culprit, according to Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. And finally, factory activity in the Midwest has contracted at a much shallower pace this month than economists projected. Analysts Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was shuffling between gains and losses. "The report shows inflation continues to move in the right direction," says Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. The S&P 500 was up 0.6%, while the Dow added 0.3%. Microsoft said it plans to appeal the decision. Meta Platforms The Facebook parent popped 9% after announcing better-than-expected top-line results. At other times, the market sentiment pendulum has stayed close to center, with individual investors' moods staying largely within their historical averages. This supports the theory this is a short-term bullish signal. Revenue also beat expectations, coming in at $14.49 billion against the consensus estimate of $13.78 billion. Market sentiment . AAII reported that bearish sentiment, or expectations that Yep, you read right. The survey's results can be described as a pendulum that, at times, stays on one side or the other for prolonged periods. Kitco Account, Ray Dalio: The U.S. and China are on 'the brink of an economic resources war', Yellen warns the U.S. could default by June 1 if the debt ceiling is not raised, Bitcoin price in freefall, plunges below $28k as traders flee financial markets, Gold retreats as robust US data lifts dollar; focus on Fed, Sotheby's doubles down on NFTs with the launch of a secondary marketplace, Monday's Charts for Gold, Silver and Platinum and Palladium, May 1, Where are the stops? Clearly, chartists should not consider signs of excessively bullish sentiment as a bearish signal for the S&P 500. AAII reported that bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 3.4 percentage points to 38.5%. And Hershey isn't done raising prices. It also estimated a smaller operating loss of between $110 million to $160 million. have the potential to trigger a sharp downside spill. CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting. Pessimism among individual investors stayed above average for the 10th consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.